January 24, 2006
Kamloops Daily News

Canada's newly-elected prime minister will have to break the
news to the U.S. president.

NAFTA is dead. We didn't kill the trade agreement; the U.S.
did last August when Washington refused - - again - - to
obey a trade tribunal requiring export of our softwood
duty-free.

Canadians will have to be assured that the sky will not fall
because of the death of NAFTA. Some Canadians are so
insecure that they think we can't survive without the U.S.
Worse still, they think that the U.S. cares about us. Sure,
there is a personal bond between the Canadian and American
people but that's where it ends.

With NAFTA gone, the sun will rise tomorrow and the world's
largest international trade will continue. Don't kid
yourself, Americans don't trade with us as a personal favour
or because they feel obligated by NAFTA - - they do so
because it benefits them.

A cordial phone call to the U.S. president from the prime
minister will let him know that Canada is exercising its
legal right to withdraw from NAFTA.

Not that the president cares. When reminded that Canada is
his largest trading partner, the president's reply is that
Canada would be hurt more than the U.S. in a trade war.

That response characterizes the belligerence of the current
U.S. administration. Former foreign affairs minister Lloyd
Axeworthy puts it this way: "Anyone who thinks that
neighbourly proximity brings favours or privileges is living
in a dream world. Americans are only vaguely aware of
Canada.

Political power in the U.S. is moving away from the
northeast to the southwest. The old connections with
Washington have little traction in the changing landscape of
U.S. politics.

The prime minister will have deal with this uncertain time
in our relations with the U.S. This is not the time for
indecision. We are dealing with an American political
system steeped in the ideology of empire. At the best of
times, the U.S. practices a kind of a la carte bilateralism:
cooperating when it wants to and doing what it pleases the
rest of the time.

The cavalier U.S. attitude is clear from its unilateral
invasion of Iraq under the pretense of terrorist threat;
Washington's rejection of an International Criminal Court;
its indifference to climate warming; and the undermining of
the United Nations.

The prime minister will have to comfort weak-kneed
Canadians. We are a mature nation and there are other
markets in the world to develop. With the emergence of
China, India, Brazil and South Africa as economic powers,
Canada has other trade opportunities. The more time we
waste on the U.S., the more opportunities slip away.

We are a trading nation but NAFTA has become a pathetic
excuse for a trade agreement. Jim Stanford, economist for
the Canadian Auto Workers, suggests the following timetable
of withdrawal.

First, give the required 6 month notice of our intention of
withdrawing from NAFTA, including the energy-sharing
provisions that Canada (not Mexico) was silly enough to
accept.

Impose a ceiling on energy exports to the U.S. and conduct a
long and leisurely review by the National Energy Board on
appropriate export levels.

Once delays in energy exports get the attention of the
elephant, let serious negotiations begin. The zero-tariff
in trade is an obvious first step given the billion dollars
in trade daily. Should the U.S. disagree, tariffs will
revert back to the pre-NAFTA levels determined by the World
Trade Organization.

Fourth, abandon the pipe-dream of special exemption for
Canada from U.S. trade law. That illusion got us in trouble
before.

The prime minister will need to remind insecure Canadians
that just because NAFTA is dead, that doesn't mean that we
have no trade agreement. Our fall-back position is the
World Trade Organization.

The WTO was our primary trade agreement for 40 years before
NAFTA. Under the WTO, the U.S. was never able to levy
duties on our lumber.We won almost all trade disputes with
the U.S. under the WTO - - and the U.S. abided by the
rulings.

The Department of International Trade of the WTO has
recently ruled that the U.S. countervailing duties are
inconsistent with WTO rules.

Our new prime minister must make it clear that Canadians are
a law-abiding people and that if our trading partners choose
to conduct themselves in a lawless fashion, we will look
elsewhere.

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