July 6, 2004
Kamloops Daily News



The next war won't be fought over oil.

According to a report from the Pentagon, global warming will
cause political unrest and conflict.  The next war will be
fought over food.

Global warming will bring mega-droughts, famine and
widespread rioting around the globe, says the report.  
People in search of food will bring our planet to the edge
of anarchy as countries defend dwindling food supplies. 
Nations may resort to nuclear weapons to secure food
supplies.

"Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,"
concludes the Pentagon analysis. "Once again, warfare would
define human life."

The report is remarkable for both its content and its
source.  This is not some doomsday scenario from a flaky
bunch of environmentalists.  This is not some wild
conspiracy.  It's from one of the most conservative
institutions in the U.S.

As American agricultural land dries up and good growing
climates move north, Americans will look to Canada for help.

However, it's naïve to think that Canada could become
America's bread basket.  Canada will have trouble just
feeding Canadians.  Heat is not the problem.  Canada has
already warmed 5 degrees Celsius in our north and1 degree in
the south.

Growing seasons are not a problem.  The United Nations
Environment Programme says that "in the Canadian prairies,
the growing season might lengthen by 10 days for every 1C
increase in average annual temperature."

As the Earth warms, climates shift north at the rate of
about 200-300 kilometers for every degree of warming. 
That's bad news because Canada's best growing soil is in the
south.  "Even if sub-Arctic Canada experiences climatic
conditions similar to those now existing in the country's
southern grain-producing regions, its poor soil may be
unable to sustain crop growth," says the UNEP.

Southern Canada will experience drier soil for two reasons -
- higher temperatures will result in more evaporation from
soil and shifting weather patterns will resulting in less
rain for Canada's grain belt.

We are already experiencing those shifting weather patterns
here in Western Canada.  One persistent weather pattern is
called "omega blocking".  If you look at a weather map, you
can see it for much of the summer.

This weather pattern is characterized by a jet stream that
swings north over B.C. and only returns south about
Manitoba.  Seen on a weather map, the jet stream loops in
the shape of the Greek letter omega.

This dominant weather shift carries rain north of  B.C. and
the prairies and it shows no sign of stopping.  Wildfires in
B.C. are four times greater this year than a year ago. 
Rivers in the prairies are drying up.

Lack of rain is one problem, rising temperature is another. 
As temperatures exceed ideal values, crop yields decrease. 
Even with enough water,  yields will decrease due to heat
stress.  In 2003, a record heat wave damaged many crops in
the United Kingdom, France and Ukraine, resulting in
increased bread prices.

Environment Canada sums it up this way. "Most scenarios
suggest that the semi-arid regions of the Prairies can
expect an increase in the frequency and length of droughts.
Average potential crop yields could fall by 10-30 per cent,
due to higher temperatures and lower soil moisture."

At the same time as the world runs out of agricultural land,
it will also be running out of oil.  The two events will
combine in a perfect storm of world conflict.   As arable
land and food crops move north away from major cities, the
cost of transporting food will go up. 

Fossil fuels feed much of North America.  Food sources have
become increasingly distant as cheap fuel brings cheap
third-world food on ships, planes, and trucks from around
the globe.

Some land will become more fertile but the food from this
land will be beyond the reach of much of the world's 6
billion inhabitants - - either because it is no longer near
large populations, or because rising fuel costs make the
transport of food prohibitive.

The White House is unhappy with the Pentagon report because,
according to the gospel of president Bush, global warming is
not taking place.  The President is blind to the gathering
storm over the horizon.

Climate change "should be elevated beyond a scientific
debate to a U.S. national security concern", say the authors
of the report.  That's not likely as long as long as the
U.S. is preoccupied with oil wars.

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