May 15, 2001
Kamloops Daily News


We don't know much about the B.C. Liberals except that after
tomorrow, they will form the next government.   

These Liberals have never been in power before and so it's
difficult to say what they will do.  The last  Liberal party
in power in B.C. was from 1933 to 1941, with Premier John
Duncan MacLean.  But you can't compare these two Liberal
parties.  Today's Liberals are not the Liberals of sixty
years ago -- in fact, they are not even exclusively liberal.

The B.C. Liberals are an collage of Social Credit,
Conservatives, Reform, and even a few liberals.  The
remnants of these former parties coalesced  with the express
purpose of defeating the NDP, and that's what they will do. 
They are a unite-the-right party that the Canadian Alliance
and federal Conservatives should envy. 

Premier-elect Campbell has kept a tight reign on his party,
and so he should.  He doesn't want maverick candidates
blowing the election by saying stupid things.  Campbell has
thrown out a few clues about what his party would do, such
as the proposed referendum on Native land claims.

But this referendum is not going to happen.  Campbell will
drop this contentious proposal to have British Columbians
decide the fate of B.C.'s  minority Native peoples.  Most
members of his party understand that such a referendum would
be divisive.  Also, a referendum would delay the settlement
of land claims that cost $1 billion a year in lost
investment.

Campbell must bring together the factions of his party.  To
please the liberal faction, he plans to proceed with the NDP
plan to increase the minimum wage to $8.00 per hour, the
highest in Canada.  This will not endear him to his business
lobby.   To please the reformers, he plans to allow private
insurers to take profits from the public insurance company,
ICBC.

The problems start for the B.C. Liberals the day after his
government is sworn in.  Then approximately 70 Liberal MLAs
will want to have their voice heard in legislature.  When
you have a party formed out of discontent with the current
government, guess what you have after gaining power?
Discontent.  

I'd like to offer Premier-apparent Campbell some free
advice.   Learn from the experience of the Canadian
Alliance.  They were forged on discontent with just about
everything: federal politics, western alienation, government
intervention, and ex-leader Manning. 

Forget about the notoriously fickle grassroots.   They want
contradictory things.  The grassroots want reduced taxes and
increased spending for health care.  They  want less
government red tape and strict regulations for polluters of
our air and water.  The grassroots want cheap goods and
services and well paying jobs.  They want the government to
get out of the way of free enterprise and a publically owned
hydro utility.  In short, voters want less government and
the protection that government should provide.

Stockwell Day learned the hard way that you can't depend on
the grassroots.  If you live by the grassroots, you die by
the grassroots.   Party discipline is the key.  Keep a lid
on dissension and stick to party principles.  Of course,
with the diverse political constituents of the B.C.
Liberals, a set of coherent party principles are going to be
tough to establish.

The B.C. Liberals can't be complacent about tomorrow's vote. 
There is the danger that voters will think that the Liberal
win is a done-deal and not show up at the polls.  On the
other hand, supporters of the NDP and the Green party are
motivated.  The NDP is fighting to form opposition party
status and the Green party is riding a surging crest of
popularity. 

All of these factors will reduce the popular vote for the
Liberals from the current 70 per cent to about 50 percent. 
It's still enough for a sweeping majority, leaving the NDP
with a core from which they can rebuild.  The  Green party
will elect the first member to legislature in North America. 

Four years from now, there will be calls for the parties on
the left to unite to defeat the Liberals.  One thing is for
certain, B.C. politics will never be dull.

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